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A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics. We propose a novel framework for uncertainty estimation. Based on Bayesian belief networks and Monte-Carlo sampling, our framework not only fully models the different sources of prediction uncertainty, but also incorporates prior data information, e.g. sensor noise. We show theoretically that this gives us the ability to capture uncertainty better than existing methods.